#287: India-China Disengagement
Kya ho raha hai?
China ko kya chaihye?
Real disengagement or the CALM before the STORM?
In a latest announcement,
India & China have gone from being conflicted neighbors to frenemies.
Disengagement at Demchok & Depsang;
Sure, they’re pulling back for now but real question: for how long? 🤔
Why this Question?
Dis-engagement for China is like PAUSE in a game of move, provoke, retreat & repeat. But why now?
BRICS
Another pattern: Every time there’s a BRICS summit,
China wants to send a ‘peace’ message for a ‘war’ that it has created out of thin air
Mind you! Kazan sees next round and you know what you will see going forward!!
Same Playbook, New Chapter
Point to note: We’ve seen similar behavior in Doklam & Pangong Tso
With Galwan in the list, it feels like a standoff after standoff
Here’s a pattern for you to note:
China raises tensions
China flexes muscle
China shakes hands BUT
..without any side eye.
Noticing this pattern, India is preparing. How?
Despite committing to pull the soldiers back, Indian infra projects have not slowed down!
Roads, Airstrips, Bridges, Chardham Project and everything in between is in a full swing.
Wonder why? To be ready for the next “oops! China did it again”
LAC is Just the Beginning: The Real Game is Bigger
Why is LAC a small milestone in the journey for China?
Real fight is for the control
The control for Power, Influence & Resources across the region
How, you ask? Read
Quad alliance: US-JAPAN-AUSTRALIA-INDIA have the side-eye of China. India isn’t playing solo anymore and China knows it!
Canada, US & Five Eyes: While China shook hands in a go, it still needs to be watched out for how it plays the realpolitik game! IFYKWIM 😉
China’s BRI obsession: Dragon wants to wrap Asia in its trade web extending up to Europe. India stands in the way with a clean message: “Not today, Xi!”
Water Unrest: Control of Tibet & unrest in Bangladesh calls for a new game unfolding. India needs to stand cautious of the disengagement for who knows when will China chose to control the tap tomorrow?
The Galwan Ghost Still Haunts
Wounds of Galwan are still fresh.
While there are no official number on their side,
India took a gut punch losing 20 Indian soldiers
What did it do? Killed the trust for a long long time!
Worse? At the altitudes of Galwan, trust doesn’t grow back easily!
China has a broken problem too! While its maps show Arunachal & Aksai Chin as its own, it follows core of Mao’s Playbook
push a little, pull back enough & act innocent,
India is charting its own path
You see it in ban of TikTok, blocking Chinese investments, building border roads and above all, engagements with Taiwan, ASEAN, Central India & even Myanmar to some extent.
So, What Happens Next?
See disengagement as a break in the action, not the finale.
A war on a battlefield isn’t likely
But hey? Who fights on the conventional wars anymore?
(unless you are Russia-Ukraine)
It’s a cold war.
One which sees shift in the boardrooms, trade talks, water disputes & influence race
To India’s good luck, China is yet to be the super-power
It allows us time to prepare while the Dragon rises!
TL;DR?
Disengagement might lower the heat for now, but the game is still on. India knows it, China knows it; everyone knows it. This isn’t peace, it’s just a pause. Today, the troops step back. Tomorrow? It could be something else.
Stay ready. This game never really stops.