#275: Conflicted Neighborhood
Balochistan-Afghanistan-Bangladesh-Myanmar-SL | Detailed Notes
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Indian neighborhood is on fire!😲
Balochistan-Afghanistan-Bangladesh-Myanmar-SL
Why? When? What? How?🤔
1. Balochistan, Pakistan
• Historical Context
Marginalization despite naturally resource rich region
• Resource Exploitation
Natural gas, copper & gold are said to be exploited by govt. & foreign entities (China via CPEC)
Sadly, no real benefits trickle down to locals
Result?
Resentment over disparity & perceived exploitation
• Political Autonomy & Identity
Cultural differences with Punjabi-dominated central govt. (Baloch = Sunnis, Pak dominated by Shias)
This led to stronger desire for autonomy causing movements (at times violent)
• Military Operations & Human Rights Concerns
Pak military criticized for abuse, exploitation, and extrajudicial killings
• Recent escalation
Baloch Liberation Army attacking symbols of state power along w/ CPEC
The instability therefore isn't about just separatism
Conclusion
It encompasses grievances over economic disparity, cultural suppression, and political marginalization.
2. Myanmar | Coup, Conflicts, and Crisis
• Coup & Political Turmoil
This is where the core of instability stems from!
Feb 2021: Suu Kyi's won elections but overthrown in a coup.
Result?
Civil disobedience + armed resistance
Ripple effect seen in India's NE leading to a clash b/w Centre & state of Mizoram
• Ethnic Minorities & Conflicts
They want either autonomy or independence
Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) like 'armies' have raised arms
(Kachin seen in UPSC 2023 Pre)
• Human Rights Abuses
Torture, Sexual Violence & Extra judicial killings
The 3 are allegedly military's response to resistance
• Economic Decline
Coup invited sanctions leading to internal conflict
Internal conflict disrupted trade routes leading to reduced FDI
This all led to hardships → economic decline
• Rohingya Crisis
Complexity multiplies with genocide accusations against Rohingyas
The spillover seen in Bangladesh (Bhasan Char island) and India is a massive headache for both countries
• Geopolitical Interests
Country enjoys a strategic location
Foreign powers' interests in stability & governance of Myanmar might affect regional security & economic projects
Conclusion
Instability in Myanmar stands at a confluence of
Military power grab x Ethnic aspirations x HR abuse x Economic Fallout x lack of Int'l attention
Thus, Governance, human rights, economic stability, & Int'l relations are all in a state of flux.
This makes Myanmar one of the most complex conflict zones globally.
3. Bangladesh
PM Hasina had to leave the country. Did it happen overnight? NO! Unearth one by one
• Perception politics
Perceived authoritarian tendencies of Hasina govt
Club it with opposition boycotts led to economic disruption
Lastly, PM Hasina had been in chair for 15 years. An entire generation never tasted alternate governance leading to fatigue
• Economic Discontent
Despite recording economic growth, 🇧🇩 registered significant unemployment
This was amplified via social media leading to frustration and political unrest
As a result, the first quota protest gained initial traction in no time
• Quota Protest
I detailed on it here on Twitter
Conclusion
All these elements created a volatile mix
Political instability is a function of 3 variables.
Economic Grievances x Political Suppression x Social Media outreach
This situation further reflects broader themes of frustration among the youth.
However, in no case shall India's neighborhood be a power playground b/w US-China
4. Sri Lanka
• Economic Crisis
Forex crisis, inflation & shortage of basic essentials
Top it w/ post COVID economic uncertainty & geopolitical tensions, people sought regime change
• Corrupt political leadership
Extensive Rajapaksa's control earned allegations of corruption & nepotism
Concentration of power brewed authoritarian tendencies leading to misgovernance
• Ethnic & Social tensions
Sinhala-Tamil tensions always stay in backdrop of SL politics
Pro-Buddhism favoritism of the govt. contributed to broader social instability
• International Debts
🇱🇰economy depends heavily on the foreign loans
China's heavy share here raised concerns
Need for IMF bailouts & Chinese intervention invited foreign influence in the domestic policy
Result?
We all have seen Sri Lankans in Presidential house :)
Conclusion
All these factors led to economic desperation
Topped with political dissatisfaction, it created volatile environment ripe for civil rebellion
Experts claim that this civil unrest sought more of political accountability & reforms over JUST economic relief
5. Afghanistan
Taliban took over & since then, Afghanistan is down the drain.
The country is also called Graveyard of Empires
How did they reach here? What's happening? Learn ↓
• Historical Context
Soviet-Afghan war → Taliban rise → US invasion '01 → US withdrawal
This division led to power vacuum
..and Taliban sought to fill this power vacuum
• Taliban Governance
Oppressive governance proves nightmare for the citizens
President Karzai had to leave (similar to SL/Bang)
Taliban's ways earned significant internal resistance & international isolation
Result?
We saw Afghanis climbing on running planes!😕
• Economic Decline & Aid Reduction
Absence of aid & int'l aid left Afghanistan drained
Taliban is both incapable & unwilling to manage modern economy
Result?
Exacerbated poverty, increased unemployment, and led to widespread dissatisfaction.
• Resistance Movements
There are still some groups challenging Taliban rule
National Resistance Front is the top among these!
This contributes to instability by maintaining state of low-intensity conflict